LaV 
7th January 2018 01:57 PM 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TFO
(Post 51177)
I tried 216 thirst with 30% mount and got nothing. ;( ;(

Assuming you have an even spread of quest durations (at 30% thats {3.5, 7, 10.5, 14} thirst, thus a (3.5+7+10.5+14)/4=8.75 thirst/quest average  multiply that by 25 since you want 25 quests and youre at 218.75  so at 218.75 thirst in the time machine your odds of getting the achievement are 50%.
I also played around with the numbers a little bit:
You can confirm these numbers with a simple dice probability calculator
Note: This is with a 50% Mount and includes minor rounding errors
Code:
Thirst Probability in %
62.5 0.00
80 0.00
100 0.00
120 0.57
140 14.23
150 36.10
160 63.90
170 85.77
180 96.34
200 99.95
225 100.00
250 100.00
As I said, I'm not sure whether the quest durations are distributed equally. I'm not sure how the time machine handles cases like 0.5 thirst being left and there's probably some other special cases I have not looked into, so the actual probabilities are probably slightly different from my values, but they should be in the right ballpark.
For 30% mounts you can just multiply the thirst number by 1.4. So at 180*1.4=252 thirst you have a 96.34% chance to get the achievement with a 30% mount.
