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-   -   Gambling rigged/not really part of the game? (

ScrawnyRat 21st June 2011 07:02 AM

Gambling rigged/not really part of the game?
I've begun to wonder whether gambling is rigged. I'm sure it isn't, but something doesn't feel right about it for me.

If one chooses the same cup each time, statistically it's very rare to miss more than 7 attempts in a row. One has a 5.8% chance of doing so, which means that out of 100 attempts at the mini-game one should miss only 6 of them at the 7th level. Yet over the last few days where I start far fewer than 100 betting "cycles" each day (probably only 30 or 40 before my money runs out), I seem to miss more than 7 in a row much more often than 6% (in fact today I didn't win once win on the 6th, 7th, or 8th bet of any cycle, which even taken in isolation should see me win 70% of the time). In fact, today I missed more than 10 wagers in a row twice (15 [0.2% chance] and 12 [0.7%])! Needing to make a 6th bet should only happen 1 game in 5, so when that's a regular occurrence you know something is wrong, particularly when your subsequent few bets *also* fail each time.

I know I'm not the luckiest player out there (see my thread on finding Epics), but to miss as many in succession as I have been would suggest the mini-game is not entirely fair. The increase by 5x in the minimum bet suggests people of over level 120 were able to milk it via a betting "system" provided it remained "fair" in its selection of where the ball went. A "fair" 3-card-monte where you give double the wager for winning is infinitely exploitable by anyone with enough money and the right method, but without exploit it heavily favours the house, so much so that it's not worth playing. You either make infinite money or you lose/merely waste time.

So if you're going to make it unfair or set the stake high in order to avoid the exploit, why is it even in the game? I can't think of any justification to include a mini-game designed to take the player's money.

Knytul 21st June 2011 07:04 AM

simple. so players like you can lose your gold to it, instead of buying stats like i do :D Then when i got more stats than you do, i can attack you, take your gold, and gamble it away.

ScrawnyRat 21st June 2011 09:14 AM

While cute, your comment is pointless. How many points in stats do you gain per day? No more than a handful, I'm sure. Heck, I'm 100 levels lower than you and I can only afford a few points each day. Surely the object of a mini-game is to allow you the chance to get more than a handful, provided you play the game better than the other players? I'm having a hard time thinking of another game designed to allow you to get stuff, that also traps you into throwing said stuff away. I simply can't see the point of that from a game design perspective.

Any bet in the game is -0.33 ev (expected value - you stand to lose 1/3rd of your wager every time you bet, regardless of the level of your bet). Most gambling games aren't anywhere near that bad, or are designed in such a way that you lose money to other players rather than having it lost forever. The only way to actually win consistently at this particular game is to start with a million gold and hope to avoid the 1:500 chance that leaves you with no money, except that you need to play so much to make anything that the 1:500 chance *will* come up, and undo all the work you did before.

Knytul 21st June 2011 05:53 PM

Actually, it isnt pointless. While it is cute, its all true. The gold you invest into it, can be spent into points. If i only spent gold daily in points, im sure i gain quite a few. But, i spend gold in my equipment daily too, as well as potions.

Reason why, take a look at the top 30 ranks. 1-13 is people level 230+. 14 and 15, me and a guildie at 217 and 211. Then its a 229.

Point is, until you are up as strong as you desire, it isnt effective or efficient to gamble your gold away. When you finally reach a position that you feel comfortable with, only them gamble. When you can attack someone else for their gold and gamble it, instead of ur own.

Leander 21st June 2011 08:50 PM

No, it is not rigged. The chance to win is 33%. If you win, you win twice the amount of gold or mushrooms. Personally, I never gamble as it is too risky. This function isn't that serious is just a small mini-game for players who have tons of gold and want to play a little game.

ScrawnyRat 22nd June 2011 04:52 AM


Originally Posted by Knytul (Post 1902)
Point is, until you are up as strong as you desire, it isnt effective or efficient to gamble your gold away. When you finally reach a position that you feel comfortable with, only them gamble. When you can attack someone else for their gold and gamble it, instead of ur own.

But isn't that my point? You're in the top 15 in this game, and even you don't gamble because it's a waste of money. For reference I also spend my cash in gear/potions/points/guild and only started to test out gambling over the last few days, before coming to the realization that it's pointless.

I did a little test spreadsheet yesterday to try work out if there was a mathematical point where the mini-game would break down, and it seems that my assumption that it could be beaten with enough cash is false. There is always a point beyond which you cannot continue to bet if you lose, and if (when) you hit that point you have now lost more money than you have gained throughout your history of playing it. Maybe you decide to play for 10000 gold each day. Maybe one day you'll be lucky enough to double that - but that 10k gain will always be less common than the 10k loss when you go bust or the accumulation of days when you've lost 3k and given up. If you want to throw money away, then just give it to your guild. Which brings me back to what I said yesterday: I can think of no justification to include a mini-game that is designed to take something away from the player.

manudude03 26th June 2011 02:36 PM

I've started using this minigame for money. You start with a small amount and double the bet every time you lose, until you win. You will always make the amount you bet first time unless you lose the lot. Losing the lot is very unlikely with a good amount of gold. For 310 gold and starting at 10 gold, you get 5 attempts (10, 20, 40, 80, 160), and that's already about a 7/8 chance of making 10 gold. You are right though that no strategy leads to EV+.

mmoVZ 12th September 2011 11:09 AM

To my experience, no matter with how much gold you start, there comes the point where you can't double the amount anymore and you lose everything.

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