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Old 21st June 2011, 07:02 AM
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ScrawnyRat ScrawnyRat is offline
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 29
Default Gambling rigged/not really part of the game?

I've begun to wonder whether gambling is rigged. I'm sure it isn't, but something doesn't feel right about it for me.

If one chooses the same cup each time, statistically it's very rare to miss more than 7 attempts in a row. One has a 5.8% chance of doing so, which means that out of 100 attempts at the mini-game one should miss only 6 of them at the 7th level. Yet over the last few days where I start far fewer than 100 betting "cycles" each day (probably only 30 or 40 before my money runs out), I seem to miss more than 7 in a row much more often than 6% (in fact today I didn't win once win on the 6th, 7th, or 8th bet of any cycle, which even taken in isolation should see me win 70% of the time). In fact, today I missed more than 10 wagers in a row twice (15 [0.2% chance] and 12 [0.7%])! Needing to make a 6th bet should only happen 1 game in 5, so when that's a regular occurrence you know something is wrong, particularly when your subsequent few bets *also* fail each time.

I know I'm not the luckiest player out there (see my thread on finding Epics), but to miss as many in succession as I have been would suggest the mini-game is not entirely fair. The increase by 5x in the minimum bet suggests people of over level 120 were able to milk it via a betting "system" provided it remained "fair" in its selection of where the ball went. A "fair" 3-card-monte where you give double the wager for winning is infinitely exploitable by anyone with enough money and the right method, but without exploit it heavily favours the house, so much so that it's not worth playing. You either make infinite money or you lose/merely waste time.

So if you're going to make it unfair or set the stake high in order to avoid the exploit, why is it even in the game? I can't think of any justification to include a mini-game designed to take the player's money.